Based on a 24-month linear trend fitted to the data, ending Feb-2026. This series is shown in original (not seasonally adjusted) terms; short-term swings may reflect regular seasonal patterns.
| 2Y Trend (% p.a.): Average annual growth rate over the past two years. |
| Current vs Trend: Latest month compared to its underlying trend (positive = above trend, negative = below trend). |
| Momentum: Direction of change versus the longer-term trend (Up = accelerating, Down = slowing, Flat = stable). |
| Classification: Overall position based on growth strength and momentum. |
Most states are currently sitting below trend, although the picture varies across states. Momentum is turning down and trend strength is weak overall. VIC stands out on the upside at 17.7% above trend, while NSW is below trend at 115.5%.
| State | 2Y Trend (% p.a.) | Current vs Trend | Momentum | Classification |
| VIC | -5.4% | 17.7% | ↓ | Above trend / Weak & Cooling |
| WA | 5.1% | 5.0% | ↓ | Above trend / Moderate & Cooling |
| SA | 0.5% | -2.1% | ↓ | Below trend / Weak & Cooling |
| TAS | -3.0% | -2.5% | ↑ | Below trend / Weak & Improving |
| QLD | 0.2% | -6.1% | ↓ | Below trend / Weak & Cooling |
| NT | 16.7% | -24.1% | ↓ | Below trend / Strong & Cooling |
| ACT | 12.5% | -29.5% | ↓ | Below trend / Strong & Cooling |
| NSW | -61.8% | -115.5% | ↑ | Below trend / Weak & Improving |
The latest figures remain mostly below trend, although results vary across states. Momentum is easing and underlying trend strength is strong. VIC is performing furthest above trend at 379.0%, while ACT is furthest below trend at 100.0%.
| State | 2Y Trend (% p.a.) | Current vs Trend | Momentum | Classification |
| VIC | -44.3% | 379.0% | ↓ | Above trend / Weak & Cooling |
| WA | 14.4% | -4.0% | ↓ | Below trend / Strong & Cooling |
| QLD | -15.6% | -21.1% | ↓ | Below trend / Weak & Cooling |
| NSW | 3.0% | -24.1% | ↓ | Below trend / Moderate & Cooling |
| TAS | 61.1% | -25.4% | ↓ | Below trend / Strong & Cooling |
| SA | 70.2% | -30.5% | ↑ | Below trend / Strong & Accelerating |
| ACT | -26.6% | -100.0% | ↑ | Below trend / Weak & Improving |
| NT | 227.0% | -100.0% | ↓ | Below trend / Strong & Cooling |
Recent results are largely tracking below trend, with variation across states. Momentum is easing, while trend strength remains weak overall. VIC is the strongest performer at 14.8% above trend, whereas NSW is the weakest at 121.2% below trend.
| State | 2Y Trend (% p.a.) | Current vs Trend | Momentum | Classification |
| VIC | -0.8% | 14.8% | ↓ | Above trend / Weak & Cooling |
| WA | 13.9% | 5.4% | ↓ | Above trend / Strong & Cooling |
| SA | 9.7% | 2.2% | ↓ | Above trend / Moderate & Cooling |
| TAS | -1.0% | -1.5% | ↑ | Below trend / Weak & Improving |
| ACT | 27.2% | -3.1% | ↓ | Below trend / Strong & Cooling |
| QLD | 5.3% | -4.3% | ↓ | Below trend / Moderate & Cooling |
| NT | 21.7% | -27.4% | ↓ | Below trend / Strong & Cooling |
| NSW | -59.1% | -121.2% | ↑ | Below trend / Weak & Improving |
Most states are currently sitting above trend, although the picture varies across states. Momentum is turning down and trend strength is moderate overall. NSW stands out on the upside at 60.1% above trend, while NT is below trend at 14.8%.
| State | 2Y Trend (% p.a.) | Current vs Trend | Momentum | Classification |
| NSW | -9.3% | 60.1% | ↓ | Above trend / Weak & Cooling |
| QLD | 5.2% | 22.2% | ↑ | Above trend / Moderate & Accelerating |
| WA | 10.4% | 13.3% | ↓ | Above trend / Strong & Cooling |
| VIC | -2.5% | 3.8% | ↓ | Above trend / Weak & Cooling |
| SA | 3.3% | 2.9% | ↓ | Above trend / Moderate & Cooling |
| TAS | 4.6% | 1.7% | ↑ | Above trend / Moderate & Accelerating |
| ACT | 1.0% | -5.7% | ↓ | Below trend / Weak & Cooling |
| NT | 9.8% | -14.8% | ↓ | Below trend / Moderate & Cooling |
All data sourced from: ABS - Australian Bureau of Statistics
